Gold surged to a record high in April 2025 but has since entered a quiet phase, trading sideways.
Frank Holmes doesn’t see this as a loss of momentum.
Instead, he compares the current state of the gold market to a sailor adjusting sails in shifting winds. It’s not the end of the rally—it’s a tactical pause. Holmes remains bullish, urging investors to “stock those gold coins, stock those silver coins.”
Despite the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at its July meeting, Holmes believes real interest rates are already negative due to understated inflation. He dismisses the official CPI as misleading, citing airfare prices that are up 100% since before COVID and Amazon retail increases of 30 to 100%.
According to Holmes, inflation is actually running at an annualized rate closer to 12%, not the 4–5% reported. With purchasing power quietly eroding, he argues that savvy investors are moving into real assets—and gold remains a cornerstone.
Platinum’s 50% Rally: Not a Fluke
While gold has commanded headlines, platinum has quietly outperformed all major commodities in the first half of 2025, soaring nearly 49%. Holmes attributes this to a surge in industrial and jewelry demand, particularly across Asia.
Platinum’s lustrous appeal in diamond settings, combined with its resistance to tarnish, makes it a favorite in fast-growing economies like China, Vietnam, and Malaysia. But supply isn’t keeping pace.
South Africa, the world’s leading platinum producer, is grappling with anti-mining regulations that have choked exploration and development.
Holmes also points out that palladium, often mined alongside platinum, has its own geopolitical challenges, with most of it sourced from Russia.
In short, platinum’s rise isn’t a fluke—it’s a structural shift supported by rising demand and constricted supply.
The BRICS Challenge and the De-Dollarization Drive
Holmes sees a deliberate effort by China and Russia to weaken the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, particularly through the expansion of BRICS nations and gold accumulation.
China’s strategy hinges on giving its currency more perceived legitimacy by backing it with gold and promoting alternatives to the dollar through initiatives like One Belt, One Road.
The freezing of $300 billion in Russian assets during the Ukraine invasion only accelerated the desire of other nations to insulate themselves from U.S. financial power.
But Holmes also sees a powerful countermeasure in the rise of dollar-backed stablecoins. He highlights Tether as a prime example, with over 300 million wallets, $13 billion in profits, and more U.S. Treasury holdings than Germany.
Stablecoins, Holmes argues, allow foreign citizens to hold dollars outside their own fragile banking systems, preserving demand for the greenback even amid growing distrust of U.S. fiscal policy.
Military Spending and the Dollar Tug-of-War
Despite deficit spending and monetary excess, the U.S. dollar remains strong thanks to its unmatched military backing and global fungibility. Holmes points to a worldwide surge in defense spending as democratic nations re-arm in response to authoritarian threats.
Germany, for example, is boosting its military budget to $250 billion, while Canada has raised its defense outlays from $25 billion to $150 billion. The U.S. continues to invest in cyber and AI defense capabilities, further solidifying its monetary leverage.
The Genius Act, passed recently, paves the way for widespread adoption of stablecoins as a new form of U.S. dollar liquidity.
Holmes believes that while other currencies race to devalue, the dollar’s military and technological advantages will ensure it devalues the least.
The April tariff war, strategically aimed at China, has also helped reinforce dollar strength, pushing the DXY index back to its 50-day moving average.
The Commodity War: Copper, Gold & Strategic Metals
Holmes sees a global war—not of bullets, but of metals.
As China secures dominance over strategic minerals, including copper and rare earths, the U.S. faces mounting pressure to develop domestic resources. But bureaucratic red tape, especially from the EPA, continues to stifle American mining projects.
Holmes credits investor Robert Friedland for recognizing the opportunity early, quietly accumulating undervalued copper and gold tracts in the U.S. a decade ago. Copper, with its vital role in electrical conductivity, is becoming a strategic asset on par with oil.
Holmes argues that China would love nothing more than to divert copper exports exclusively to its shores, much like it has done with other critical minerals.
The battle for resource control is intensifying, and the West needs to accelerate its response if it wants to remain competitive in the next phase of industrial development.
East vs. West: Why Western Investors Are Missing the Gold Boat
Despite gold’s strong fundamentals, many Western investors remain skeptical or outright bearish. Holmes notes that billions have been redeemed from gold ETFs like GDX and GDXJ, even as gold stocks hit record highs.
The disconnect is stark—Newmont Mining blew past earnings expectations, but not a single analyst saw it coming. He sees this negativity mirrored in other sectors too, such as airlines, where analysts failed to predict a 130% rise in United Airlines’ stock.
Meanwhile, family offices and hedge funds have been quietly accumulating gold, taking advantage of low sentiment and attractive valuations.
Holmes attributes the skepticism to a broader Wall Street bias against cyclical assets. By the time mainstream analysts catch on, he warns, the real profits will have already been made.
Final Thoughts & Resources
Holmes encourages listeners to subscribe to Frank Talk, his weekly investment commentary published through USFunds.com. The newsletter offers market insights, SWOT analyses, and short-form updates on gold, global economics, and upcoming data releases.
With over 100,000 readers in 80 countries, Holmes aims to give investors a professional, sports-like read on where markets have been and what lies ahead.
His approach is clear: understand the game, assess your performance, and prepare for the next opponent.
As the world pivots toward hard assets and geopolitical uncertainty escalates, Holmes believes it’s more important than ever to stay informed—and stay bullish.
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