Gold dipped from Tuesday’s record as most asset classes saw muted moves ahead of the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision later today.
Bullion traded about $40 below its record high of $3,703.07 an ounce set in the previous session. Traders are focusing on the outcome of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting, where they see a quarter-point cut this week as a certainty. Lower rates are positive for the non-interest bearing precious metal.
Swap traders are currently pricing in a high chance of two additional cuts before the end of the year, and a solid US retail sales reading on Tuesday did little to move the bets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference later Wednesday may give clues as to how likely that is. They will also study ‘the dot plot,’ a visual representation of where Fed policymakers think rates are headed.
Bullion has been buoyed this year by a softer US dollar, which has shed almost 10% against a basket of other currencies. A weaker greenback makes gold cheaper for other currency holders.
Gold has rallied more than 40% this year on geopolitical uncertainties, concerns about potential negative impacts of US tariffs on the global economy, as well as buying from central banks — especially those from emerging markets. Investors and analysts widely expect more upside for the rally, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasting prices could rise to near $5,000 an ounce if investors shifted just a small portion of holdings from treasuries into bullion.
US President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Fed’s independence is adding to momentum for gold. His legal battle with Governor Lisa Cook highlights a desire to bend US rates and the dollar to his will. He has also successfully brought his economic adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed to fill a temporary term.
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