The 'Cash For Clunkers' Economy

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HCM

This essay is excerpted from the most recent version of the HCM Market Letter.  To subscribe directly to this publication, please go here.

“The relation between the real and final value of the object and its representation by a bond has lost all stability.  This clearly shows the absolute flexibility of this form of value, a form that the objects have gained through money and which has completely detached them from their real basis.  Now value follows, almost without resistance, the psychological impulses of the temper, of greed, of unfounded opinion, and it does this in such a striking manner since objective circumstances exist that could provide exact standards of valuation.  But value in terms of the money form has made itself independent of its own roots and foundation in order to surrender itself completely to subjective energies.  Here, where speculation itself may determine the fate of the object of speculation, the permeability and flexibility of the money form of values has found its most triumphant expression through subjectivity in its strictest sense.”

George Simmel,  The Philosophy of Money (1900)


The stock market has been running its own ‘cash for clunkers’ program as the shares of the worst companies are trading as though they are AAA.  Some attribute this to the flight of short-sellers.  HCM attributes it to the deeply embedded culture of speculation that the financial crisis did little to shake.  As the S&P 500 reached its highest level in ten months in August, some of the best performing stocks were the walking dead:  Citigroup; AIG; Fannie Mae; and Freddie Mac.  What they had in common was major ownership by the U.S. government and a record of abject business failure.  While a rising tide is supposed to lift all boats, rusted hulls riddled with holes always end up sinking back to the bottom.

Graphs 1-4

Cash For Clunkers

Cash for Clunkers

The 'cash for clunkers' program is an apt metaphor for the entire stimulus enterprise.  Short-term, artificial stimulus can only provide short-term, artificial economic support.  The real test of the government’s economic policy will be whether it sows the seeds of sustainable long-term economic growth, and that type of policy will require significant changes to tax, energy and spending policies.  Some of these changes have been enacted, particularly in the energy area, but the tax code remains untouched (although there is a special panel headed by Paul Volcker working on the matter), and spending remains a captive of Congress unless the President wants to go to war with his former colleagues on Capitol Hill.  We remain in the early innings of the Obama Presidency and much has been accomplished to stanch the economic bleeding, but the patient is still in need of a comprehensive preventative health plan.  No pun intended, but attempting to start with a comprehensive health plan that expands coverage before it reduces costs may place too much stress on the system’s heart and cause it to expire.

There can be little question, however, that massive amounts of money have returned to the financial markets, and that these markets have in turn made these funds available to the financial economy.  As a result, short-term systemic risks have receded, particularly among the largest financial institutions in America and Europe.  But there should be no misunderstanding that governments are the source of the liquidity underlying this stability and that the private sector remains a drain on liquidity.  A reported $11 trillion of support commitments have been made by the U.S. government, $2.8 trillion of which has already been paid out, according to CNN.  This has permitted the largest U.S. financial institutions to reduce their balance sheet leverage meaningfully from the levels that pushed several of them over the cliffs last year.  Moreover, the Obama Administration and Congress are taking the necessary regulatory steps to dramatically reduce the odds of a replay of 2008’s near-death experience. 

Stability may be an essential phase on the way to growth, but it should not be mistaken for growth.  More importantly, it must be examined closely to determine if it is sowing the seeds for growth or merely throwing dirt over a rotten crop that will never make it to harvest.  One cannot avoid the uncomfortable observation that even with all of this huffing and puffing on the part of the government, employment, corporate revenues, housing prices and retail sales are still declining!  Where has all of this liquidity gone?  We think the answer is rather obvious – the financial markets have been lapping it up.  If we are correct, it suggests that very little of the government stimulus in its various forms has ended up adding to the productive capacity of the U.S. economy. Such an outcome should not be surprising in an economy that was suffering prior to the crisis and is still suffering from massive overcapacity in industries such as banking, retailing, automobile manufacturing and the like.

As noted in last month’s issue of this publication, U.S. stimulus pales in comparison with the efforts of the Chinese government to prevent its economy from falling off a cliff.  In world-historical terms, China’s stimulus has been unprecedented in amount and has caused price spikes in Chinese stock and commodity prices that are clearly unsustainable.  On the ground, however, this massive stimulus has increased Chinese GDP by only 7.9 percent, which may seem like a lot but is a relatively modest number when measured against the size of the stimulus.  Now we are beginning to hear noises (which we predicted last month) that bank reserve requirements are going to be raised and that banks themselves are taking steps to limit loan growth.  These reports have thrown China’s stock and commodities markets into reverse.  Investors with an appetite for volatility could do worse than short the Chinese stock market in response to these efforts to withdraw the stimulus.1


1 The Shanghai composite index dropped 21.8 percent drop in August after rising 90 percent earlier this year, including a 6.75 percent drop on August 31.  We are certain that this drop had nothing to do with my appearance on CNBC’s Street Signs on August 27 predicting just such a reversal in the Chinese markets.