The deferral of “reciprocal” tariffs on most U.S. trading partners suggests that the peak of tariff uncertainty may have passed.
Measures announced so far this year have pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate above 20%. The astonishing jump has raised import taxes to a level not seen in about a century.
The reciprocal reprieve does not alter the tectonic shift in the trade outlook.
With uncertainty in abundance, we think investors should avoid drastic moves.
We’re adjusting our stance in response to rising risk while maintaining a disciplined view on long-term strategy.
We reexamine our macroeconomic outlook in light of newly announced tariffs, which have exceeded market expectations and prompted us to update our assumptions and analysis.
The 10% across-the-board (ad valorem) tariff and specific reciprocal tariffs on most U.S. trading partners went well beyond what most were expecting.
We examine the April 2 tariff announcement from President Trump, outlining key proposals and the potential implications for trade and market sentiment.
The last time the dollar needed policy intervention was in 1985. The dollar was ascendant, and that put American exports at a disadvantage.
We call upon an expert for the latest on foreign exchange markets.
The substantial shift in U.S. trade policy will put a significant dent in growth in major markets.
We’ve written quite a bit on tariffs already this year, and appropriately so. Developments on this front have been significant and are of global consequence.
The canal is a vital and valuable trade route.
The time is right to let the Fed's balance sheet level off.
As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.
Whenever political questions arise, we always encourage a broader view: politicians don’t control the economy, and policy changes rarely move markets. But the past month has raised serious questions over that assertion.
When breakthroughs occur, researchers get the lion’s share of the credit. But they owe a big debt of gratitude to those who collect and organize the data with which insight is manufactured.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Many ASEAN members punch above their economic weight in international trade. But their power may also make them targets in the mounting global trade battle.
Differing sales tax regimes can appear unfair.
Eggs add to perceptions of high inflation.
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
The economy can grow through policy changes.
The greatest benefits of TCJA were deep in its details.
At this time of year, those of us who live in the Northern hemisphere are looking forward to a change of season. Statistically, every February week in Chicago should see the daily high temperature rise by 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but conditions can vary significantly from expectations.
Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation, Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., outlines the investment themes and return expectations from our new 10-year outlook.
Europe has real risks and real bargaining tools in a trade confrontation.
U.S. dependence on metal imports could prove costly.
An escalation seems more likely than diffusion in the U.S.-China trade battle.
Our research shows how artificial intelligence can potentially enhance performance of equity investing.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The costs and revenue of U.S. tariffs are being blunted by evasion.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
China will struggle to maintain momentum without addressing deeply-rooted problems.
The market for washing machines offers lessons for future trade actions.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key APAC markets.
We explore how advancements in indexing solutions have allowed investors to tailor their portfolios according to their specific objectives or risk profiles.
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
