To the dismay of some and the delight of others, Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020, according to Greg Valliere. Trump, he said, has no strong primary challengers among Republicans, nor are there any Democrats likely to defeat him in the general election.
Judd Peters is a portfolio manager of the Hotchkis & Wiley Small Cap Diversified Value Fund (HWVIX). Since its inception, the fund’s annualized return has been 9.45%, resulting in a 254 basis point outperformance versus Russell 2000 Value Index. The fund is rated five stars by Morningstar. I interviewed Judd last week.
Criticism of technical analysis ranges from bemused skepticism to claims of harebrained alchemy. Few investors as well-respected as Jeffrey Gundlach admit to using it. But yesterday, he explained why he relies on technical analysis under certain conditions.
Carl Kaufman is the co-president, co-chief executive officer and managing director, fixed income at Osterweis Capital Management. He is the lead portfolio manager for the Strategic Income Fund. That fund has had an annualized return of 6.18% since its inception on 8/30/02. Its performance exceeded the AGG by 278 basis points. I interviewed Carl last week.
First Eagle’s Global Fund (SGENX) is its flagship fund, with over $55 billion in assets. As of April 30, 2018, since inception (1/1/79), the Fund has returned 13.15% annually, versus 9.67% for the MSCI World Index. Over the last 15 years, it has been in the top 2% of its peer group. I spoke with its managers, Matthew B. McLennan and Kimball Brooker, Jr., on May 1.
Fear that the multi-decade bull market in bonds will end has centered on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield breaching 3%. But Jeffrey Gundlach said that is the wrong focus.
Christopher Mack is a co-manager of the Harding Loevner Global Equity Fund (HLMGX). Over the 15-year period ending 4/20/18, its annual return has been 10.46%, outperforming its benchmark by 160 basis points. Over that 15-year period, it ranks in the 15th percentile of its Morningstar peer group. I interviewed Chris last week.
Terri Spath is chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management. She is responsible for market and economic analysis, portfolio allocation, investment strategy and building client solutions. In this interview, she explains how tactical management differs from market timing, and why it will excel in the current environment.
On inflation and Fed policy, Jeffrey Gundlach disagreed with comments made by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But Gundlach’s views were in line with the consensus on those key issues – inflation will not spike dramatically higher and the Fed will continue with its planned rate hikes.
David Lau is the founder and CEO of DPL Financial Partners, a firm focused on the distribution of commission-free insurance products geared toward the RIA and fee-based advisor channel. In this interview, he discusses his suite of products and related services.
Gregg S. Fisher founded Gerstein Fisher in 1993 based on a vision of offering a quantitative investment management approach grounded in sound economic theory and more efficiently implemented through technology. In this interview, he discusses the virtues of multi-factor investing and which factors are attractive in today’s market.
A recent paper from the World Economic Forum – the group that runs the Davos conference – stated that Americans pay more for healthcare than other countries but get inferior outcomes. That rhetoric was amplified by Warren Buffett, when he called health care costs a “hungry tapeworm” eating into the American economy. But, before you assume that Americans are not getting good value for their health care dollars, let’s look at the data.
We recently surveyed over 1,500 advisors to see which asset managers they are most likely to recommend to their peers. Here are the fund companies and ETF providers that came out on top in seven different categories.
At the request of The Wall Street Journal, over the last month we conducted a series of polls asking our readers to forecast the returns for the next 10 years for a series of asset classes. The results are below.
Jeremy Siegel almost never gives a one-year forecast for stocks, but last week he predicted that U.S. equities will end the year with gains of as much as 10%. That may seem meager for investors who have benefited from double-digit gains in seven of the last nine years, but Siegel said this year will be far better for stocks than it will be for bonds.
Did you know that etherium was the best-performing asset in 2017, up 9,312%? Among those who hope to identify the non-consensus outperformers in 2018 is Mark Yusko. In the tradition of Byron Wien, he identified his 10 biggest surprises for 2018.
Challenging conventional wisdom is a mainstay of financial conference speakers. I have seen few do so as effectively as Dylan Grice, who dismissed three mainstays of accepted beliefs, most notably that the value premium will deliver risk-adjusted outperformance.
Fear of overvaluation – particularly for U.S. equities – has driven far too many investors to miss the strong bull market. For market bears to be proven right, according to Albert Edwards, it will take one or more of several triggers.
The Osterweis Total Return Fund (OSTRX) seeks to preserve capital and attain long-term total returns through a combination of current income and moderate capital appreciation. The fund invests primarily in investment-grade securities and employs tactical shifts in sector allocation, interest rate/yield curve risk and credit quality, attempting to capture return across credit, interest rate and volatility cycles. Its inception date was 12/30/16 and it is managed by lead manager Eddy Vataru.
Emerging markets and commodities present the best investment opportunities for this year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Those to avoid include the S&P 500, which he claims will show a loss for 2018. His larger warning was that most of the good news on the economic front is already priced into the capital markets.
Over the next six months, 34% of financial advisors will be increasing their allocations to actively managed non-U.S. equity funds by more than 3%. Advisor Perspectives obtained this data from a survey conducted over the last month, for which it received responses from 778 advisors.
Have profit margins risen to a permanently higher plateau? Are average Americans better off than they were a generation ago? I had the opportunity to discuss those questions, which are centrally important to investing and economic policy, with Jeremy Grantham a couple of weeks ago.
Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. We’ve posted the 10 most-widely read practice-management articles for the past year. Below are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. The list below reflects articles focused on practice management.
Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. Below are another 10 investing-, economics- and financial planning-related articles that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading.
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. The list below reflects articles focused on investing, economics and financial planning.
Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977 and serves as the firm’s chief investment strategist. Lucas White is the lead portfolio manager for the GMO Climate Change Strategy. In this interview, Jeremy and Lucas discus the risks and opportunities in climate-change-focused investing.
If sanctions against a target regime can be thought of as antibiotics, then North Korea has largely become drug-resistant. Indeed, North Korea is exhibiting “superbug” traits, increasingly impervious to sanctions, according to John Park.
Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central banks reverse their quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates, this “Goldilocks era” will come to an end, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
The bull market in U.S. equities is behind us, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says that the S&P 500 is now “fairly priced.”
Those looking for an optimistic forecast for U.S. equities can turn to Northern Trust. Bob Browne, its chief investment officer, identified six themes that will drive the capital markets over the next five years. Taken together, they translate to 5.9% annual returns for U.S. stocks over that period, which includes 2017.
Neil Hennessy is a portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Hennessy Funds. In this interview, he discusses the compelling opportunities in mid-cap and Japanese stocks, and what RIAs should be doing in advance of the next market correction.
The money to be made is in non-U.S. markets, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. For long-term investors, he recommends a specific ETF.
Mohamed El-Erian says that investors have been “enticed to become increasingly exposed to historically illiquid asset class segments.” Here are the asset classes and ETFs that are most at risk.
The Wall Street Journal says that funds given a top “star” rating by Morningstar won’t be top performers. But the Journal’s findings are neither new nor as conclusive as its article states.
For nearly 25 years, the EU has held together despite challenges from bankrupt institutions, separatist movements and members with widely divergent economic prospects. But that cohesion is being tested, according to Albert Edwards, by countries that are losing their competitiveness. But his greater concern is the impact the Fed-induced credit bubble will have on the markets.
Morningstar’s Fund Manager of the Year is one of the most coveted awards in the mutual fund industry. Indeed, fund companies devote enormous resources to promoting award recipients. But should advisors invest their clients’ funds with those winners?
Do you think you’re wasting your time pursuing Millennials as clients because they don’t have enough money? If so, you’re wrong.
Should you worry if organized crime has infiltrated the boards of the companies you own? Can you learn anything about how your investments will perform based on movie theater receipts? Two recent research studies answer those questions.
In the 80 years since Keynes published his General Theory, few questions have been as controversial as whether or not government spending can stimulate a weak economy. New research shows that stimulus spending indeed does work, even for countries facing high debt burdens, unemployment and inflation.
Rapid technological advances are transforming the global workplace. But fears that automation will permanently destroy American jobs are misplaced, according to Joe Davis. Instead, the jobs that require “uniquely human” skills will proliferate, Davis said.
Greg Dunn is a portfolio manager for Thornburg Investment Management. He manages the Thornburg International Growth Fund (TINGX), which has outperformed its benchmark by 540 basis points over the last 10 years. In this interview, he discussed his investment philosophy and what drove that outperformance. Please visit Thornburg Investment Management at booth 123 at Schwab IMPACT.
Thomas Kertsos is a portfolio manager and senior research analyst at First Eagle Investment Management. He is the manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund (SGGSX), which, as of June 30, has returned 5.37% since its inception, on 8/31/93. That is 645 basis points better than its benchmark, the FTSE Gold Mines Index (-1.08%).
Andrew Susser manages the MainStay High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (MHCAX). Over the last 15 years, the fund has ranked in the 12th percentile of its Morningstar peer group; its annualized return was 8.45%, 395 basis points ahead of the AGG and 95 basis points greater than its peer-group average. In this interview, he discusses the opportunities in the high-yield market.
Bob Rodriguez, FPA’s now-retired portfolio manager, earned many awards and distinctions during his 33-year career. In this interview, he talks about the role of the Fed in the price-setting mechanism. “When the markets finally do break, as they always have historically, ETFs and index funds will be destabilizing influences,” he says. Please visit FPA Advisors at booth 123 at Schwab IMPACT.
The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on actively managed US equity funds. This focus group will take place as a private APViewpoint conversation.
Advisors who are not part of the focus group will not be able to view this conversation, and advisors who are part of the focus group will not see the responses of the other participants.
If you are selected to participate in this focus group, you will be required to thoughtfully answer a series of questions, at your convenience, over a seven-day period. It will take approximately an hour to answer the questions. At the completion of the seven-day period, Advisor Perspectives will pay you $100, either to your PayPal account or as an Amazon gift card (your choice). Alternatively, you may designate that the $100 be donated to one of four charities: the American Red Cross, the USO, the Foundation for Financial Planning or the Jimmy Fund (a cancer-research organization).
To participate in this focus group, you must meet the following criteria:
An anonymous sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on actively managed US equity funds. This focus group will take place as a private APViewpoint conversation.
Underfunded pension plans grab the headlines. But that’s not what drives prices in the municipal bond market, according to Tom Doe. It’s the interplay between supply and demand – and right now yields are depressed due to a shortage of high-quality bonds.
Many wealthy clients, especially owners of closely-held firms, have interests in subchapter-S corporations. The tax policies proposed by the Trump administration will have a significant impact on them, according to Toni Nitti.
