Brian Smedley is head of macroeconomic and investment research at Guggenheim Partners. In this interview, he explains why his team is forecasting a recession in mid-2020 and how advisors should position portfolios in response.

Lon Erickson, CFA, is a portfolio manager and managing director for Thornburg Investment Management and oversees five of its fixed income mutual funds. Erickson says that rates could be as low as 1.1% in the next year, and he explains why a collaborative, bottom-up construction process will benefit advisors and their clients.

When the yield curve inverted earlier this year, Blackstone’s economic model predicted a recession in the next 20 months. But Byron Wien cautioned against relying on that forecast.

A recession would doom President Trump’s reelection chances, according to Robert Shiller. But he said the chance of that happening before next November is less than 50%.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury security was 1.42% on September 3, and it won’t go any lower this year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. He said he would “absolutely not” buy 10-year bonds.

John Langbein may not be a familiar name to financial advisors, but he has had a significant and lasting impact on our profession. On September 16, he was awarded the Frankel Fiduciary Prize.

If the robos were pitted against a fifth grader, consisting of a 60/40 cap-weighted index portfolio, Jeff Foxworthy would easily give the victory to the 10-year old.

In this interview, Jeffrey Germain and Matthew Johnson of Brandes Investment Management explain why U.S. investors suffer from a “home country bias” and discuss the compelling opportunities outside the U.S.

In this interview, the retired FPA managing partner and portfolio manager expresses his criticism of monetary policies, and how investors should position their portfolios in response.

If the signs of a recession prove true, the Fed will be in panic mode, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. The economy will weaken, rates will go up and the Fed will have to “do something,” to protect against a “spiral” of higher rates feeding and slower growth.

A barrier to ESG and SRI adoption is the one-size-fits-all approach inherent in mutual funds and ETFs. But a new solution allows advisors to create SMAs that are customized based on each of your clients’ values, needs and preferences.

We’d all like our investments to make a positive contribution to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues. But, as predicted by economic theory, ESG funds have suffered a performance deficit over a long time horizon.

Advisor Perspectives will be the exclusive marketing agent for Investments Illustrated’s products, the Big Picture © Chart and App. Advisor Perspectives will offer these products to its audience of nearly a half million professionals in the financial advisory industry.

A high-performing employee with low trust is a “toxic” team member, according to Simon Sinek. You are better off with someone who inspires high trust, even if they are just a mediocre performer. The challenge is helping those who lack it build the trust they need to succeed.

Technical analysis is built on the idea that markets and securities are actionable through analysis of historical trends. No firm has been as dominant and successful in the field of technical analysis that Dorsey Wright, the 30-year old Virginia-based firm that is now part of Nasdaq.

Although polls show Joe Biden leading his nearest competitor by more than 15 percentage points, Jeffrey Gundlach says he will not be the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidential election.

A white label approach streamlines the ETF launching process, by using filings and approvals that are already in place with the SEC

After the tumult of Q4 2018, investors deserved an easy quarter, and they got it. The Q4 trends of falling rates and rising economic concerns continued. But risk assets, like stocks and non-government fixed income spread products, pulled out of their nose dives with strong performances in Q1 2019. As we look ahead to the remainder of this year, what should bond investors expect?

If there is one asset class where advisors have taken a do-it-yourself approach, it is municipal bonds. Advisors and their clients often buy individual muni bonds and hold them until maturity. But the muni market is very broad, diverse and complex – and those are the ingredients that favor professional management.

Recessionary fears have subsided and all signs are that the global economy has stabilized, albeit at a less-than-desired growth rate. But risks abound – tariffs on Chinese goods that could trigger a trade war, Brexit negotiations, rising oil prices and a possible Fed rate hike.

Ever since the growth of robo advisors began to accelerate nearly a decade ago, the dominant trend facing advisors has been the commoditization of investment advice. With the proliferation of high-quality, low-cost investment solutions, advisors have increasingly outsourced their investing, freeing up valuable resources to help clients in other ways. But that doesn’t mean that all outsourced solutions are created equal or that advisors cannot add value through the investment choices that are made on behalf of their clients. Here’s what advisors need to know when choosing an outsourcing solution.

The most successful advisory firms are building their technology framework around their optimal client and the experience they want to deliver to that client. What’s most important when designing an experience is considering how it adds value to the advisor-client relationship.

Value investors have fared poorly over the last decade, as traditional value indices have trailed their corresponding growth counterparts. But that doesn’t mean that all value funds have done poorly. Indeed, one notable exception has been the Matthews Asia Value Fund (MAVRX).

With equity valuations at elevated levels, subdued economic growth due to changing demographics and stubbornly low productivity gains, as well as a bleak outlook for fixed income, advisors are challenged to rethink foundational portfolio elements of investor portfolios—which means seeking out strategies that bolster the core going forward.

There are three legs to the retirement problem: determining an appropriate savings and spending plan, having the right amount of insurance, and constructing an appropriate portfolio. Achieving those three goals and smoothing consumption, especially during the critical period just before and after retirement, is a complex and computationally intensive undertaking.

• American investors are confronted by accelerating complexity, sub-par returns and minimal coordination between their assets, investment strategies and underlying liabilities. When one considers that millions of investors struggle with the same challenges, you realize that America’s multi-trillion-dollar personal savings market is plagued by systemic inefficiency.

Nearly two million financial plans were created in the last year using MoneyGuidePro. The two individuals who are charged with overseeing the success of the acquisition of PIETech, the parent company of MoneyGuide Pro, discuss what that means for their clients.

As advisors have expanded their suite of financial planning services and sought new ways to add value to their client relationships, they have also committed to solutions to streamline their investment management. One of those solutions is a model portfolio, which consist of allocations to a group of mutual funds that meet the goals and risk tolerances of their clients.

A collapse in the corporate bond market could rival the sub-prime debacle a decade ago, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.

While there are many ways to gain individual exposure to the value, size, quality, momentum and low volatility factors, multifactor strategies combine exposure to all of them. Choosing the right one for client portfolios is incredibly difficult.

• The traditional role of asset managers has been limited to investment management, which is understandable considering the challenge of consistently delivering superior returns. While many asset managers provide resources and education to advisors, rarely do they make that part of their core mission.

Since its inception in 2003, the Hennessy Japan Fund (HJPIX) has outperformed the TOPIX benchmark by 473 basis points. Masa Takeda, the fund’s manager, explains why valuations in Japan continue to be very attractive.

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many individual investors were left questioning the effectiveness of their investment strategies. While many believed their portfolios were well-diversified, as the financial system faltered, they saw a large portion of their investments decline. Investors have grown weary of fund managers who profess to provide excess returns, while gains they realize are diminished by fees. Investors are more keenly focused on portfolio risk and efficient, cost-effective implementation. So given this heightened focus, how can advisors help investors work toward their goals efficiently and effectively?

VSL uses a volatility-driven, short-term capital appreciation model. Dom Catrambone explains how that has made VSL the top performing large-cap ETF in 2019 year-to-date.

It will soon be possible for guests at Marriott hotels in China to bypass lines at the registration desk and check in at a kiosk using facial recognition. Halfway across the globe, Marriott workers are going on strike, seeking higher wages and workplace safety. Artificial intelligence and robotics are at the heart of those highly promising but disruptive innovations. I am speaking today with someone whose index invests in robotics, automation and artificial intelligence companies that are at the heart of those trends.

One billion people lack access to safe drinking water, and this number is likely to grow to nearly 3 billion by 2050. To complicate this problem, 60 percent of the world’s population lives in crowded water basins shared by multiple states — many of whom are failing or are at war with one another. There is a lack of fresh water resources to meet water demand. It affects every continent and was listed in 2015 by the World Economic Forum as the largest global risk in terms of potential impact over the next decade. My guest today invests in solutions to this looming global water crisis.

The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College may be “ground zero” for modern monetary theory, but at its annual conference last week the focus was on financial regulation.

I doubt anyone reading this article will attempt something as risky as Alex Honnold did when he “free soloed” El Capitan. But those seeking to achieve highly ambitious goals can learn a lot from his experience.

I speak with Steve Deroian about the future of the partnership between Dimensional and John Hancock, and explore the reasons behind their fee reductions and the new products coming from this relationship.

In the U.S., $12 trillion of investments carry an environmental, social and governance – or ESG – mandate. That is nearly a quarter of all professionally managed assets in the U..S. – and the same percentage of global assets have an ESG mandate. Boston-based Grantham Mayo van Otterloo and its chairman, Jeremy Grantham, are among the leading and most outspoken proponents of ESG investing and related issues.

• Private equity funding is behind many of the big roll-up firms, including High Tower Advisors, Atria Wealth Solutions, Edelman Financial Services and the Carson Group. Most prominently, PE investments fueled Focus Financial Partners, which went public in July of last year. James Poer, the CEO of Kestra Financial, recently partnered with a private equity investor and discusses the role of private equity in wealth management.

With consolidation looming in the ETF industry, who will be the likely winners? Will advisors continue to shift allocation to passive products and will ETFs be the primary recipients of those flow? Two industry experts sort out those issues.

ETFs have become a cornerstone of portfolio construction across the advisory industry. Over the last three decades, they have grown from zero to a $4 trillion market. My guest today is Ed Rosenberg, who will help us understand the key trends in the ETF market and what they mean for advisors.

When Donald Trump was campaigning, he said he would eliminate the national debt in eight years. But it has increased by $2 trillion in the first two years of his presidency, leading Jeffrey Gundlach to conclude that we are “on the road to a large debt problem.”

Beginning with their introduction nearly three decades ago, the hallmarks of the ETF structure have been efficiency, transparency and flexibility. That is why ETF sponsors have been able to bring products to the market that target the sectors corresponding to the greatest investor demand, areas like online retail and the battery production to support electric cars. At the forefront of this innovation has been Christian Magoon, the founder and CEO of Amplify Exchange Traded Funds, who I recently interviewed.

Institutions have been using managed-risk strategies for a long time, and thanks to the ETF vehicle they are now accessible to financial advisors and end investors. Irma Bribiesca, who is the director of ETF strategy and product management for Transamerica Asset Management, has been at the forefront of designing and building those strategies.

One of the great paradoxes of the asset management industry is that its focus is on designing products that grow assets, yet that’s often not what investors need. Investors want a to participate in the market’s upside but be protected from downside losses. I’m going to talk today with two people who are at the forefront of a revolution in ETF product design to support the growth-driven needs of investors.

Gene Podkaminer oversees one of the largest offerings of multi-asset products in the financial industry. He is a senior vice president in head of multi-asset research strategies at Franklin Templeton. In this interview, he discusses the three trends that will drive investment returns in 2019.

The Tweedy, Browne Global Value Fund (TBGVX) has an exceptional track record, outperforming its benchmark and peer-group average by over 300 basis points annually since its inception 25 years ago. I interviewed the members of Tweedy, Browne’s investment committee.

Two of the leading municipal bond asset managers, Invesco and Dimensional Fund Advisors, will present their assessment of the compelling opportunities to add value in the municipal bond market. Attendees will learn key considerations for constructing client muni portfolios and how to address specific client needs. In addition, Advisor Perspectives will present an overview of the results of its recent market research study, which assessed how advisors are choosing municipal bond funds and ETFs.

Learning Objectives:

• How to evaluate municipal bonds in the current rate environment
• What are the critical risk in municipal bond investing
• What is the appropriate client asset allocation for municipal bonds