While inflation dipping below 3% has been welcome news for investors, it’s still early to claim that inflation has been reined in. Our simple analysis shows that inflation rising in the latter half of 2023 would not be surprising.
The US Federal Reserve Bank’s expectations for the speed of reverting to 2% inflation levels remains dangerously optimistic.
Research Affiliates discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation expectations, and explains their business cycle model and how it informs portfolio positions.
