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Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/16/12
The focus on the fiscal cliff cannot be overstated. It is very hard for the world's central banks to set rules governing monetary policy. The troika charged with addressing Greece has some internal disagreement.

U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook - November 2012
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/14/12
Our updated forecast anticipates some movement on the "fiscal cliff."

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew of Northern Trust, 11/9/12
Hurricane Sandy will impact the pattern of upcoming data, but is not likely to have a lasting economic impact. Our updated forecast anticipates some movement on the "fiscal cliff." France may be part of Europe's problem, not a source of Europe's solutions.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/2/12
The October employment report paints a favorable picture of the labor market.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore and James Pressler of Northern Trust, 10/26/12
Fiscal policy is a matter of multiplication. US GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter, but remains less than ideal. Recent reports out of China reassured the markets, but underlying trends are not so promising.

U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook - October 2012
by By Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/12/12
Budget negotiations in the US and Europe are attempting to balance austerity, prosperity, and posterity. US exports and imports are showing the strains of sluggish conditions overseas. Our updated economic forecast reflects some "cliff" effects, but not a renewed recession.

Reality Check for Europe
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/27/12
Over the past two years, the markets have gone through cycles of escalating concern about Europe punctuated by brief periods of calm.

The Hard Road Ahead for Housing
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/21/12
The housing sector has come a long way, but has a long way to go. Mortgage underwriting standards have reverted to much more conservative norms, and housing policy is very much in a state of flux. The result: renting is on the increase, and may enjoy renewed popularity for some time.

Open-Ended Easing
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/14/12
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took a very forceful set of steps this week, designed to stimulate what officials have called a "frustrating" job market. Our updated forecast suggests that the growth trajectory of the US economy is positive but sufficiently sub-par for the Fed to have initiated additional monetary policy support. There are increasing signs that China's economy is slowing more than the official readings would suggest.

Fed Preview: Time to Forge Ahead
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/11/12
I got home at about 8 one evening last week, and it looked like a bomb had gone off inside my house. The shrapnel included empty pop cans, open bags of snacks, and scores of used napkins. The sink was filled with dirty dishes, and laundry (clean, or dirty?) was strewn about the floor. No one was home, leading me to suspect that the explosion had done them all in.

The ECB: No Rest for the Weary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/7/12
The economic picture in Europe is worsening, exposing flaws in the foundation of the euro compact. The European Central Bank is trying its best, but remains hindered by its charter. European policy makers should focus on stabilizing the situation first, and seeking retribution later.

Whats A House Really Worth?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/28/12
Despite the well-documented correction in real estate prices, our property taxes have been slow to react. My wife is on a singular mission to correct this asymmetry, collecting evidence from a variety of sources that suggest that our house is relatively worthless. Good thing we don't need a home equity loan.

Setting Up for Jackson Hole
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/12
I was once favored with an invitation to the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It was an amazing experience; the participant list was a Who's Who of global economic policy makers. I called my mother to brag, but all she wanted to talk about was the mischief that she and my father had gotten into while honeymooning in the area some fifty years earlier. Too much information.

Citius, Altius, Fortius
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/10/12
Countries across the globe seek faster, higher, stronger growth. Central banks in the United States and Europe are both seeking new ways to stimulate economic activity. Recent news from the housing market has been encouraging, but the race to recovery is likely to be a marathon, not a sprint. Headwinds blowing from Europe and China will continue to present significant downside risks to U.S. economic growth.

FOMC Preview: Christening QE III
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/27/12
Look for the Federal Reserve to embark on a new round of quantitative easing next week.

An Excess of Reserve
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/25/12
Bank credit has expanded nicely over the past two years, yet financial institutions continue to hold substantial pools of excess reserves with the Fed. Some suggest that this extended conservatism is hindering the economic expansion, and are calling on the Fed to lower the rate it pays on excess reserves. The ECB has already taken this step. We think that a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves is unlikely.

Peaks and Valleys
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/18/12
Second quarter economic activity disappointed on many fronts. The drama in Europe has taken its toll on exports, markets, and confidence. The 2012 election is starting to take shape, amid the approach of a huge fiscal "cliff" at the national and local level. The negativity and uncertainty which often surround Presidential campaigns may hinder economic and market performance. This months special focus is on the Fed's recent Survey of Consumer Finances, and what it means for our economy.
Results 551–567 of 567 found.