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Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/14
The View from Jackson Hole; U.S. Auto Sales: Tailwinds Will Prevail; The Mystery of Long-Term Bond Yields

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/16/14
I have to digest a great deal of written material to keep up with the global economy. When I have free time to read, I often choose to decompress by enjoying the cartoons in The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes Treasury or the food pictures in Bon Apptit. I know that sounds shallow, but it helps keep me sane.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/9/14
Wage Growth May Not Be the Best Gauge of Labor Market Progress; The ECB's Summer Holiday May Not Be Very Relaxing; A Novel Proposal for Mortgage Lending

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/4/14
The dynamics of the world energy market have changed dramatically since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries first restricted the supply of crude oil. Today, there are many more producers, many more consumers and many more alternatives than anyone could have imagined 40 years ago.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/14
Re-regulation has diminished market liquidity. Updated U.S. budget projections are improved but not comforting. The EU searches for the right response to Russia.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/19/14
From the Suez Canal, to Japanese bullet trains, to the American interstate highway system, to the Millennium Bridge to the Three Gorges Dam, the grandeur of infrastructure is on full display the world over. Awe-inspiring and beautiful to some, these fixtures also play a critical role in the functioning of the global economy. The choices nations make in the area of infrastructure can bear critically on prosperity.

June Employment Situation: Fitting Gift for Americas Birthday
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/5/14
Todays U.S. employment report was a very good one. It was strong enough to suggest good economic momentum but not so strong as to alarm the Federal Reserve.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/21/14
The Bank of England changes course; U.S. inflation is rising, but the Fed seems unconcerned; The situation in Iraq creates additional uncertainty around oil prices.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/14/14
The World Cup begins amid a series of financial controversies; Is the honeymoon over for Japan's Abenomics program?; The last word on Thomas Piketty

Why are bond yields and volatility so low?
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/14
This years mid-point review would not be terribly kind to me or to other forecasters. None of us foresaw a big U.S. economic contraction during the first quarter of the year, although we should have better times ahead (as long as the Polar Vortex doesnt return). A more vexing surprise, however, has been the steep decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the persistently low market volatility during the years first half.

The ECB finally acts and hopes for a good reaction
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/6/14
Many have criticized the European Central Bank (ECB) for preferring words over action in recent months. So credit must be given to ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues for enacting a series of measures aimed at shaking the eurozone from its malaise. The question is whether yesterdays decision will result in more credit given to eurozone borrowers.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/30/14
Reflections from a fortnight abroad;Last weekend's European elections will make cooperation more difficult

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/17/14
China: Two different stories, one conclusion. The jury is still out on long-term U.S. growth. Fond memories of Gary Becker.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/9/14
The global recovery remains very uneven, deflation and debt: a very bad mix, a new look at Das Kapital, continued.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/25/14
The link between money and inflation has clouded, but it hasn?t disappeared

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/18/14
In a currency war, everyone loses. Should monetary policy be coordinated across countries? The International Monetary Fund is at a crossroads.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/12/14
The Federal Reserves search for stability. The patterns of world trade are undergoing important changes. Greece issued debt this week: good news or bad news?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/4/14
For the European Central Bank, actions will speak louder than words. US hiring is back on track. The debate over unemployment and wage pressure.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/29/14
Using energy as a pawn may work to Russias disadvantage in the long run. Chinas 2014 economic outlook is hazy. Lessons from the 2014 stress test.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/22/14
The Federal Reserves updated guidance takes a page from its past. Wage trends will guide the timing of tightening. Chinese banking reformers should be careful what they wish for.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/14/14
Global trade negotiations have stalled; This is a delicate time for Chinese finance; Where will Europes growth come from?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/7/14
The fight over Ukraine is an unwelcome source of uncertainty; Hiring in the U.S. improves in February; American businesses have lots of cash to invest.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/28/14
The sensitivity of emerging markets complicates the Fed?s exit plans; Raising the minimum wage is not the only way to aid low-income workers; Brazil?s economy is faltering as the World Cup approaches.

Is the U.S. Economy Under the Weather?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/21/14
Is the U.S. economy under the weather?; Japan is faltering a bit as year two of Abenomics begins; Bitcoin has generated a lot of attention, some of it unwanted

Arresting Disinflation Will Require Taking up the Slack
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/14/14
Arresting disinflation will require taking up the slack. Estimates of the U.S. output gap remain substantial. The U.S. achieves budget peace but still faces long-term fiscal challenges.

A Centennial to Celebrate - The Federal Reserve Looks Forward to Its Next 100 Years
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/13/14
The Feds centennial arrives at an interesting juncture. Never in its history has the American central bank been so deeply involved in economic management, and rarely has it attracted such controversy. The recent transition in Fed leadership marks the end of a significant era. In some ways, this makes it a perfect time to contemplate what the Fed was, what it has become and what it should be during its second century. The results of this review will be valuable to central banks the world over.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/7/14
Long-term unemployment needs to be addressed more intensively. Januarys jobs data was very much a mixed bag. Janet Yellens testimony will include thoughts on joblessness.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/31/14
Chinas shadow banking products are coming under the spotlight. Emerging markets: Be sure to differentiate. The fixed income sectors surprising strength.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/25/14
So while the Fed was the first to implement nontraditional monetary strategies, the BoE may be the first to unwind them. And it may be the first to test the power of macroprudential policy. The results might make for an interesting export back across the Atlantic.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/17/14
The U.S. budget deal reduces policy uncertainty. The fiscal state of the states is better, but challenges remain. Meeting the new cast at the Fed.

Weekly Economic Commentary: December U.S. Employment Report
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/10/14
December U.S. employment report clouded by weather-related factors. A review of the two U.S. employment surveys. The ECB reaches a critical stage.

Six Questions for 2014 - January 3, 2014
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/3/14
Our economic outlook for this year will be available next week. To provide a taste of whats ahead, here are six of the key questions well focus on during the coming months.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/20/13
As this will be our last weekly of the year, we thought we would offer some parting reflections on the year just past.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/13/13
The Federal Reserve should find a way out of quantitative easing (QE) soon. And I think the Fed will take the first step in that direction at its December 17 - 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the arguments for and against reducing quantitative easing that the discussions will feature.

U.S. Housing Sector - Losing Ground?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/28/13
The powerful momentum that drove the American housing sector forward in the past three years may be dissipating. And it is clear that higher mortgage rates have a pronounced impact on demand. The Federal Reserve will therefore have to proceed with caution as it considers when and how to reduce its asset purchases.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/22/13
The world needs to do more to stimulate spending. Moderate gains are seen for U.S. holiday sales. The Federal Reserve may change its policy mix.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/15/13
The Federal Reserves policies may remain easier for longer than previously thought. Whats the best way to arrest falling labor force participation? Look for the Fed to adopt a lower unemployment target.

Global Economic Outlook
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/31/13
The United States avoided a fiscal accident after Congress struck a deal to end the partial government shutdown and bought time to resolve differences over the federal budget. Assuming political discord will not result in another standoff, the U.S. economy is projected to show steady and stronger growth in 2014 compared with 2013.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/27/13
Merkels win is unlikely to lead to any changes in the Eurozone. Extra lift from exports is not guaranteed. Robust growth is a challenge in India, Brazil and Indonesia.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/21/13
Global deleveraging has a long way to go. Fiscal drama and the economy. Funding for economic statistics needs to be enhanced

The View from Here - September 13, 2013: Five Years After
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/13/13
How much have we recovered from the global financial crisis?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/6/13
Manufacturing surveys are upbeat, but should we trust them? The August employment report leaves lots of room for improvement.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/30/13
Global policy-makers increasingly at odds with one another. Foreign exchange reserves may hold key to stabilizing emerging markets. Geopolitics weigh heavily on energy markets.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/13
India: Broken promise or temporary hiccup? Bond markets appear unmoved by central bank guidance. Rising mortgage rates are taking some of the steam out of housing.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/9/13
The global productivity "bust" is largely cyclical. The Bank of England tries forward guidance. Will low labor force participation keep the Fed from tapering?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Income inequality is rising, but its not clear what to do about it. Brazils struggles come at a delicate time. Detroits road to bankruptcy does not set a path for others to follow.

The View From Here
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/13
Despite the advance of college savings accounts, many families are ill-prepared to pay for school.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/5/13
The odds of a September tapering have increased but are conditional on labor market conditions continuing to evolve at least as favorably as viewed at the present time. The important caveat is that the Feds forward guidance has stressed the importance of improvements in the outlook of the labor market and inflation to consider tapering, which implies that economic data between now and the September FOMC meeting will play an important role in the timing of tapering of asset purchases.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/7/13
The change at the top of the Bank of England comes at a delicate time. The May U.S. employment report will not sway the Fed either way. Eurozone and China PMI reports - interpret with caution.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/31/13
Is central bank communication clarifying or confusing? The European Central Bank should focus its efforts on small business lending. A look beneath the surface of housing proves revealing.
Results 501–550 of 575 found.