Recent Articles
Gundlach: A “Big, Big Moment” for the Bond Market
by Robert Huebscher
The bond market is “sniffing out” an unfriendly change in the direction of interest rates, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Rates are going up, he said, and investors should position their portfolios defensively for a long-term secular rise in rates.
Does Wall Street Rip Off Your Clients?
by Michael Edesess
Wall Street traders are a nasty lot, out to beat you at a zero-sum game. Seth Klarman, founder and president of the Baupost Group, who should know, has said, “I know Wall Street will always try to rip our eyeballs out.” Now, a new book confirms that view from close quarters. How, then, do investors avoid being these traders’ victims?
The Key to Responding to a Prospect Inquiry
by Dan Solin
A recent, personal experience illustrated how to effectively reply to a prospect’s initial inquiry.
Value, Growth and the Limits of Our Investment Knowledge Taming the Uncertainty Monster
by Scott MacKillop
There are people in the investment community who claim to know things with a level of certainty that is unjustified. They develop rules-based investment strategies grounded in their views about “how things work.” Yet their strategies fail to recognize the complex and dynamic nature of the financial markets, undermine the credibility of our industry and, ultimately, could harm clients.
Is It Okay to Cuss in Your Client Communications?
by Wendy Cook
Should you use cuss words in your client communications?
Last Week’s Highlights on APViewpoint
by Marianne Brunet
The top conversations on APViewpoint last week were started by Larry Swedroe and Michael Edesess. They generated thoughtful discussion with wide ranging opinion on the virtues of bond laddering, and the academic failure to understand rebalancing.
A Value Fund with an Outstanding 10-Year Track Record
by Robert Huebscher
Over the last 10 years, the Intrepid Capital Fund (ICMBX) has returned 7.59%, which is 172 basis points ahead of its benchmark and 221 basis points ahead of its Morningstar peer-group average, placing it in the top 3rd percentile of that peer group. It has also outperformed the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 over that time period. I spoke to Mark Travis, its manager, on August 30.
Recruiter Spotlight
by Various
Visit our recruiter spotlight to hear from our monthly sponsors about opportunities available for advisors in the industry.
How to Grow When Resources Are Scarce
by Beverly Flaxington
I like many of the recommendations you, make especially about growing a firm. But I am one person. I don’t have the time or the expertise to focus on growth. How do I do more than this when the regular work needs my attention?
Are the Returns of Jeremy Siegel’s “Superstar” Funds Likely to Persist?
by Larry Swedroe
If historical returns provide useful insights when it comes to identifying skillful active managers, then surely those funds with the longest track records of success are most likely to be the “winners” of the future. I tested this hypothesis using data from Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run.
Recent Commentaries
Negative Rates Will Kill Growth
by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital
For years I have argued that ultra-low interest rates act more as an economic sedative than a stimulant. This idea has elicited laughter from the economic establishment.
Gold Is Still a Good Hedge When Volatility Rises
by Russ Koesterich of BlackRock
With volatility low and interest rates poised to rise, why hold gold? Russ discusses the important role it plays in a portfolio as a hedge.
The VIX is Probably Set To Increase On The Margin
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital
It’s pretty widely recognized that August and September tend to be weak months for the stock market traditionally. And we all know that when stocks are weak, the VIX tends to increase.
The August Employment Report
by Scott Brown of Raymond James
Nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected in August. Monthly changes have been uneven in recent months, which is consistent with the usual noise in the data, although the underlying trend appears to have slowed this year.
Use This Tip to Help You Avoid Taxes Like the Top 1 Percent
by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Many people might have the impression that the top 1 percent of society—those making over $521,411—deal mainly in exotic investments such as derivatives, fine art and rare French wines. The truth is actually a lot less exciting.
A Summer of European Political Upheaval
by David Zahn of Franklin Templeton Investments
While I view the Bank of England decision to cut interest rates further in August—to a record low 0.25%—as an important reaction to the Brexit vote, I think it will be more important to see how it steers its reinvigorated quantitative easing program.
Alternatives … Compared To What?
by Craig L. Israelsen, PhD of (on behalf of) Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA)
The term “alternative investment” only makes sense in relation to some other type of investment—that is, a set of non-alternative core asset classes. The implication is that the non-alternative investments are more traditional or more generally accepted than the alternative investment.
Listening for the Market's Bell
by Harley Bassman of PIMCO
The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. They lay the blame at the feet of the amorphous market that failed to signal it was time to exit the ride.
Fiction, Fairy Tales, and Fiat
by Guy Christopher of Money Metals Exchange
Do young Americans today know anything about economics? No, they don't, according to a study during the 2016 presidential primary season, which says lots of other Americans don't either.
Recent dshort Posts
World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Divide
At week's end, four of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted week-over-week gains, down from seven the previous week. The average week-over-week change was -0.14%, down from 1.51% the previous week. There was a substantial global divide underlying the fractional loss. The four gainers were the Asian indexes, with the Hang Seng's 3.58% as the outlier at the top. The losses for the four Western indexes ranged from the DAXK's -1.03% to the S&P 500's -2.39%. The global split owes some of its spread to the Friday freak-out over a hawkish Fedspeak after Asian markets had closed.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Biggest Plunge Since June 24th
The historically unprecedented narrow trading range of the S&P 500 was snapped today by the biggest decline in 53 sessions. Today's closing loss of 2.45% was the largest since the 3.59% selloff on June 24th. Today's action essentially confirms the metaphor of an equity market infant nursing on mother Fed's breast. The selloff was triggered initially by hawkish remarks by the normally dovish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a voting member of the FOMC. But more surprising was the announcement of an unannounced speech by even more dovish Lael Brainard at the open of the FOMC week.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI YoY: Another Interim High
Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 138.9, up 0.5 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 5.67%, up from 5.20% the previous week and its highest since September 2013. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 8.3.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index Update
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. The latest index reading comes in at 21.1, up from the previous week's revised 20.5.
How Close Is the Prime U.S. Workforce to Full Recovery?
We've updated our workforce analysis to include last week's Employment Report for August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9% and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) was a bit disappointing at 151K.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 4K from Last Week, Better Than Forecast
Today's seasonally adjusted 259K new claims, down 4K from last week's 263K, was below the Investing.com forecast of 265K. The latest weekly number is 11,000 above its interim low set 20 weeks ago on April 16th.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week's Employment Report.
This is not the scenario that would have been envisioned a generation ago for the "Golden Years" of retirement. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and about one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
