Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe

There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged. It’s a classic piece of Muskian bravado that will probably prove as prescient as the billionaire’s overhyped claims about fully self-driving cars. Robotopias often fail to capture messy labor-market reality: Even in South Korea, the most robot-friendly country, only around 10% of the manufacturing workforce is automated, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Globally, the figure is closer to 1.6%.

Still, as a call to arms, I expect Musk’s enthusiasm to resonate loudly in Europe. Labor shortages, demographic decline and a political class desperate to curb dependence on foreign workers will put robotics and automation high on the priority list. Just don’t ask how firms can afford it.

factory bot race

If robots look increasingly tempting as a techno-solution, it’s not as a cynical replacement for the lumps of flesh and bone currently working on factory floors, but to get more out of a shrinking workforce. Europe is the oldest continent by median age — Italy alone is almost on par with Japan — and fertility, another of Musk’s obsessions, is cratering. Competition for new recruits to replace retiring workers is also getting tougher as a result of on-shoring in the wake of Covid-19. A European Union report has identified about 40 occupations including construction and healthcare hit by “widespread” shortages, with some too reliant on a shallow pool of cheap labor.